Real Growth Rate Analysis With Respect To The Forecasts

The Global Market Model, the world’s largest database of market forecasts, has released its latest growth outlook, categorizing global industries into high growth, moderate growth, and slow growth segments based on their real Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGRs) for the period 2025–2035. This update reflects recent structural shifts, technological advancements, and changes in the global trade and investment environment.

Note: The growth rates mentioned in this analysis represent real growth rates, which exclude the impact of inflation, providing a clearer view of the actual expansion of these industries over the forecast period.

Forecasted Real CAGR

Note: The horizontal and vertical red lines represent the average global GDP growth rates for the respective periods (2015–2025 for historic CAGR and 2025–2035 for forecast CAGR). These lines are included as benchmarks to compare the growth rates of various industries relative to global economic growth.

High-Growth Industries Outperform Global GDP
With Real Growth Rates Above 5%


Medical Equipment Icon

Medical Equipment (6.7% CAGR)

Medical Equipment continues to lead all sectors, driven by rising global healthcare demand, innovation in diagnostics, robotics, and wearable devices. Growth is also supported by increasing investment in health infrastructure and home-based care. However, trade frictions related to medical device components and shifting regulatory standards are influencing sourcing and production strategies.


Services Icon

Services (6.1% CAGR)

Services  maintains strong momentum across leasing, outsourcing, and digital support platforms. Growth is bolstered by the rising need for scalable, tech-driven service delivery across sectors, from real estate to workforce management.


Information Technology Icon

Information Technology (5.9% CAGR)

Information Technology is accelerating due to the continued rollout of AI, cloud computing, and digital transformation across all industries. While software markets lead, the hardware segment is increasingly impacted by global trade controls and input cost volatility, especially around computing infrastructure and networking components.


Media Icon

Media (5.6% CAGR)

Media is expanding rapidly, powered by digital content consumption, streaming platforms, AI-generated media, and immersive formats. Global shifts in media monetization and personalized engagement are fueling new platform growth.


Transport Services Icon

Transport Services (5.6% CAGR)

Transport Services  benefit from sustained growth in e-commerce logistics, last-mile delivery, and global freight upgrades. While infrastructure spending supports long-term growth, input tariffs on vehicle components and battery systems are adding short-term cost pressures.


Veterinary Healthcare Icon

Veterinary Healthcare (5.1% CAGR)

Veterinary Healthcare  remains a high-performing sector, with increased pet ownership and growing awareness of animal health and wellness driving global demand. Innovations in diagnostics and companion animal therapeutics are key growth drivers.


Financial Services Icon

Financial Services (5.0% CAGR)

Financial services is expanding steadily due to rising adoption of digital finance, mobile payments, and wealth tech. Growth is supported by strong consumer engagement and improved access to financial tools in emerging and mature markets alike.

Moderate Growth Industries Reflect Structural Strength and Innovation With Real Growth Rates Between 3.25% and 5%


Transport Icon

Transport (4.7% CAGR)

Transport sees strong performance from investment in electric vehicles, smart infrastructure, and logistics optimization. However, rising input costs due to tariffs on transport equipment and components are influencing expansion and procurement decisions globally.


Chemicals Icon

Chemicals (4.6% CAGR)

Chemicals are gaining momentum from applications in battery tech, agriculture, and manufacturing. Demand remains high, but regulatory oversight and trade restrictions on specialty inputs continue to challenge global sourcing and pricing strategies.


Social Services Icon

Social Services (4.5% CAGR)

Social Services benefit from public and private investments in education, health, and childcare. Technology integration such as online learning and remote care delivery is improving access and supporting consistent growth.


Retail and Wholesale Icon

Retail and Wholesale (4.4% CAGR)

Retail and Wholesale  continues to expand through omnichannel retail, e-commerce platforms, and AI-powered personalization. However, tariffs on consumer goods and inputs are creating price fluctuations and shaping inventory strategies.


Electrical and Electronics Icon

Electrical and Electronics (4.3% CAGR)

Electrical and Electronics are bolstered by demand for EV components, renewables, and data infrastructure. Export controls and trade restrictions on chips and critical electronics are impacting supply chain resilience and pricing.


Pharmaceuticals Icon

Pharmaceuticals (4.2% CAGR)

Pharmaceuticals remain a stable growth area, driven by demand for advanced treatments, including GLP-1 drugs, oncology therapies, and personalized medicine. Trade-related constraints on APIs and biologics inputs are influencing availability and pricing.


Machinery Icon

Machinery (4.1% CAGR)

Machinery grows steadily due to demand from industrial automation, agriculture, and infrastructure projects. However, tariffs on machinery components and rising material costs are affecting global sourcing and capital expenditure plans.


Aerospace & Defense Icon

Aerospace & Defense (4.0% CAGR)

Aerospace & Defense is improving with increased defense spending and a rebound in commercial aviation. Export regulations and controls on defense equipment and aviation components continue to shape procurement strategies.


Professional Services Icon

Professional Services (3.9% CAGR)

Professional Services sees strong demand for advisory, legal, and consulting services. Expansion is driven by ESG compliance, digital transformation, and cross-border business needs. Data governance and regulatory policy changes are influencing service delivery models.


Hospitality Icon

Hospitality (3.7% CAGR)

Hospitality is recovering post-pandemic with demand for sustainable, wellness-focused travel. Trade-related pressures on imported furniture and hospitality supplies are influencing premium service pricing and procurement. 


Paper, Plastics, Rubber, Wood and Textile Icon

Paper, Plastics, Rubber, Wood and Textile (3.7% CAGR)

Paper, Plastics, Rubber, Wood and Textile is adapting through bio-based materials and sustainable packaging. Trade barriers on plastics and synthetic textiles are impacting cost structures and buyer preferences in some markets.


Construction Icon

Construction (3.3% CAGR)

Construction is expanding moderately, driven by housing and infrastructure projects. However, tariffs on steel, aluminum, and heavy equipment are raising project costs and affecting development timelines.


Utilities Icon

Utilities (3.3% CAGR)

Utilities are growing through investment in clean energy and grid modernization. However, trade restrictions on imported solar panels, batteries, and turbines are affecting pricing and rollout speed in several markets.


Food and Beverages Icon

Food and Beverages (3.3% CAGR)

Food and Beverages continues to expand through demand for health-focused, fortified, and ready-to-eat products. Tariffs on agricultural inputs and processed goods, along with export controls, are contributing to supply variability and cost pressures.

Slow-Growth Industries Face Structural Challenges With Real Growth Rates Below 3.25%


Recreation Icon

Recreation (3.2% CAGR)

Recreation shows modest growth, driven by increased interest in health and wellness activities. Cost pressures from equipment imports and shifting consumer spending trends may influence growth pacing.


Agriculture Icon

Agriculture (3.2% CAGR)

Agriculture continues to be shaped by climate challenges and agtech adoption. Trade barriers on fertilizers, seeds, and key inputs are influencing planting decisions and pricing in global food chains.


Mining Icon

Mining (2.8% CAGR)

Mining is experiencing slower growth, particularly in fossil and base metals. Export duties, trade controls, and fluctuating demand for critical minerals like lithium and cobalt are shaping investment and pricing volatility.


Healthcare Services Icon

Healthcare Services (2.6% CAGR)

Healthcare is expanding slowly compared to other healthcare segments. Labor shortages, rising operating costs, and inconsistent regulatory alignment for digital health are limiting scalability across markets.


Oil and Gas Icon

Oil and Gas (2.4% CAGR)

Oil and Gas shows modest growth, supported by energy security needs and short-term price spikes. Long-term trade restrictions on refining technologies and fossil fuel infrastructure are shifting investment toward alternatives.


Metal and Mineral Icon

Metal and Mineral (1.8% CAGR)

Metal and Mineral remains the slowest-growing industry, with weak demand from traditional construction and manufacturing. Trade duties and export restrictions on refined metals are driving price uncertainty and demand-side caution.

Conclusion: Solid Growth Ahead, but Trade and Supply Chain Adjustments Are Key

The forecast for global industries through 2035 shows healthy real growth across most sectors, particularly those centered around technology, healthcare, and services. These industries continue to benefit from rising demand, new innovations, and shifting consumer expectations that are driving long-term momentum.

However, global trade conditions are playing a bigger role in shaping how businesses operate. Tariffs, regulatory barriers, and export controls are affecting production costs, material availability, and investment decisions across several key sectors, including electronics, transport, chemicals, machinery, and construction.

As growth opportunities continue, the ability to respond quickly to evolving trade dynamics will be critical. Businesses that invest in regional supply flexibility, rework sourcing strategies, and reduce exposure to trade-sensitive inputs will be better positioned to maintain competitiveness in a more unpredictable global environment.

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